Forecasting & Risk

See the path
before the turn

Scenario lattices, runway trajectories, and covenant headroom in one forecasting surface. Models that backtest clean. Signals that stay decision-grade.

Scenario lattice

Probability-weighted paths across growth, burn, and runway. Select a case to inspect the surface.

forecast / lattice / baseP=52% · ensemble
Growth+12.4%
Monthly burn$890K
Runway18.2 mo
Probability52%

Backtest record

forecast / backtest / trailing8 quarters · MAPE 2.6%
PeriodActualForecastErrorModel
Q1 2024$2.84M$2.79M1.8%ARIMA(2,1,2)
Q2 2024$3.12M$3.08M1.1%ARIMA(2,1,2)
Q3 2024$2.98M$3.21M7.7%Bayesian CP
Q4 2024$3.45M$3.39M1.7%Bayesian CP
Q1 2025$3.68M$3.62M1.6%Ensemble
Q2 2025$3.91M$3.84M1.8%Ensemble
Q3 2025$4.02M$3.98M0.9%Ensemble
Q4 2025$4.21M$4.15M1.4%Ensemble

Covenant headroom

forecast / covenant / facility6 checks · 1 watch
CovenantThresholdCurrentHeadroomStatus
Minimum Liquidity$5.0M$8.4M68%compliant
Debt Service Coverage1.25x1.82x46%compliant
Leverage Ratio3.50x2.14x39%compliant
Fixed Charge Coverage1.10x1.04x5%watch
Cash Burn Cap$1.2M/mo$890K/mo26%compliant
Interest Coverage2.00x3.41x71%compliant

Risk models

forecast / risk / registry6 models armed
IDModelMethodSignalHorizon
GARCH-REVRevenue VolatilityGARCH(1,1)Moderate90d
BCP-DETECTChangepoint DetectionBayesian Online CPStable180d
MC-CPTYCounterparty ExposureMonte Carlo (10K)Low365d
VAR-FXFX Translation RiskVAR (95%)Elevated60d
ARIMA-WCWorking Capital CycleARIMA + SeasonalModerate120d
LAT-FUNDFunding Gap AnalysisScenario LatticeLow270d

Fit. Blend. Lattice. Covenant. Signal. Publish.