Forecast

What the account balance does over the next ninety days, built from what is already committed.

Forecast in SigmaPointPi
/forecast

A forecast built from a growth assumption is a wish. This one is built from known obligations: scheduled bills, expected invoice collections at their historical timing, payroll runs, and recurring transfers.

The line shows the projected balance. The shaded range around it is the uncertainty from collection timing, which is where most of the variance in a small company actually comes from.

Where everything sits

Ruin probability
Ruin probability
P10 runway
P10 runway
Expected runway
Expected runway
Net cash change @ P50
Net cash change @ P50
Ending cash by week
Ending cash by week
cash out
cash out

How to work this page

Read the trough, not the endpoint

The lowest point in the window is the one that matters. A forecast that ends healthy having dipped below zero in week six is a forecast of insolvency.

Understand the range

Invoices are projected at each customer's own payment history rather than at terms. A customer who always pays at 45 days is modelled at 45, not at 30.

Add what is not yet in the system

A known future cost that has no bill yet can be added as a planned item. It is marked as planned so it never gets confused with a committed obligation.

Compare against last month's forecast

Forecast accuracy is tracked. Knowing you consistently run ten percent optimistic is more useful than any single projection.

On a phone

Forecast on iPhone 15 Pro Max

Every figure from the desktop appears here, stacked rather than reduced. Tables scroll inside themselves so the page never moves sideways, and figures keep their separators and their alignment at every width.

Questions people actually ask

Why is the range so wide?

Usually a small number of large receivables with inconsistent payment history. The widest contributors are named so you know which conversation would narrow it.

Does it include tax?

Yes. Known obligations from the tax calendar appear at their due dates, which is what stops a quarterly estimate arriving as a surprise.